Black Sea Grain Initiative & African Countries: A Brief Analysis
Background
Despite African countries importing much more grain from various countries, including the Russian Federation, the Black Sea Grain Initiative serves as an additional source of staple foods lifeline for developing African nations, bolstering vital stocks of grain imports. The program was started on 7/22/2023, brokered by Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine.[1] A 60-day extension was enacted on 3/18/2023, much shorter than the original program.[2]
Key Findings
- On a per capita, rank order basis, Tunisia #1, Libya #2, Djibouti #3, have gained the most from the deal.
- Despite all countries being non-aligned, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, member of Sudan’s transnational council, openly supports Russia.
- The program is in danger due to Russia’s complaints of sanctions, as evinced by the shorted extension. Non-Renewal is likely.
Methodology
Data has been analyzed from the start of the Black Sea Grain Initiative to the end of February 2023, and tabulated data was symbolized on GIS Maps via Qgis. Grain Export data is from the United Nations[3].Population data was garnered from the World Bank and was utilized to discern per capita values. A variety of open-sources were used to assess political sentiment.
Political Sentiment of African States on Ukraine/Russia War
| Country | Generalized Overall Sentiment |
| Sudan | Seeking Deeper Ties with Russia, Despite Receipt of Wheat. |
| Kenya | Welcomes Deal to Address food issues. No overt Russian Support. |
| Ethiopia | Welcomes Deal to Address food issues. No Overt Russian Support. |
| Egypt | Welcomes Deal to Address food issues. No Overt Russian Support. |
| Algeria | Welcomes Deal to Address food issues. No Overt Russian Support. |
| Djibouti | Welcomes Deal to Address food issues. No Overt Russian Support. |
| Somalia | Welcomes Deal to Address food issues. No Overt Russian Support. |
| Tunisia | Welcomes Deal to Address food issues. No Overt Russian Support. |
| Libya | Welcomes Deal to Address food issues. No Overt Russian Support. |
| Morocco | Welcomes Deal to Address food issues. No Overt Russian Support. |
Grain & Grain Derivative Exports to Africa: Start of Black Sea Grain Initiative to Africa [7-22-2022 -2-28-2023]
Population, Wheat Per Capita: Metric Tons of Wheat
July 22nd 2022 – February 28th, 2023
Metric Tons of Wheat Per Capita
July 22nd 2022 – February 28th, 2023
Sources
About the Analyst
Robert Ogum holds B.A. in Africana Studies from the University of Pittsburgh and an M.S in Applied Intelligence from Mercyhurst University’s Ridge College of Intelligence Studies and Applied Sciences, the world’s premier academic program for Intelligence Studies. His favorite topics include African Security, African Economics, Climate Change, Analytic Techniques and the science of decision-making and cognition. He also relishes in the study of African-focused economic topics. He blogs on Medium. https://medium.com/@rob_10705
